Graphs - Time Series & Trends

In the last decade, independent colleges awarded 28,281 bachelor's degrees in science, technology, engineering, and mathematics, 35 percent of Ohio's total.

In the last decade, external causes appear to have overwhelmed the effect on income usually expected from the increase in the number of Ohioans who have earned at least a bachelor's degree.

Although a small group for now, speakers of Spanish, whether born here or elsewhere, represent Ohio's fastest-growing demographic, now totaling more than 300,000 residents.

For the first time in this decade, more than half of entering first-year students in 2009 secured "aid that must be repaid" - i.e., loans - to support their college education.

For more information, visit the Freshman Survey section of the Higher Education Research Institution at the University of California at Los Angeles: www.heri.ucla.edu.

In the decade of the '00s, bachelor's degree production at Ohio's independent colleges has grown by 20 percent, and overall degrees by 25 percent.

The recent upsurge in Ohio public campus enrollments is largely concentrated at two-year campuses - namely community and technical colleges and local university branch campuses.

Actual graduations from Ohio public high schools have, so far, been somewhere between the various federal projections. This leaves some question whether the expected long-term rebound from the most recent projection will actually occur.

Lifting the tuition freeze appears not to have damaged Ohio’s public-sector enrollments for now, but the full effect will not become evident until announced tuition increases become effective in the winter or spring. The lion’s share of the fall increase was at the two-year campuses — community college headcount jumped by nearly 17% and branch campus headcount by more than 11% over fall 2008.

New federal projections continue to predict a significant drop in the number of Ohio public high school graduates in the next decade. However, a slight rebound is forecast toward the end of the period, a welcome change from prior models.

The strength of Ohio's independent colleges is evident from the 1.6 percent increase in enrollment - the 24th year in a row - during difficult economic times that include major cuts in state students financial aid.

Women already make up an increasing share of students at higher education institutions, and projections for the next decade point toward this trend continuing.

Cuts in need-based student aid in Ohio threaten the state's continued improvement in college participation among its low-income residents.

The financial commitment of Ohio’s independent colleges to their own students has nearly tripled over a ten-year period.

In the four-year sector, Ohio's independent colleges lead the way to success for nontraditional students.

Colleges around the state are now scrambling to help this fall's students, many of whom face thousands of dollars in state financial aid cuts.

Ohio independent colleges and universities have been able to educate increasing numbers of students from their home state, thanks to state programs such as the Student Choice Grant. The future with much more limited funding is cloudy.

American increasingly recognize that college education is essential to success.

New adjusted figures from the U.S. Department of Education show continued growth in Ohio's independent colleges this past academic year - despite the many challenges our sector faces.

In 20 years, the value added to the paycheck by having a bachelor's degree over a high school diploma has increased more than 25 cents on the dollar.

An increasing percentage of low-income Ohioans are attending college - in recent years outpacing the nation as a whole.

A recent, sudden decrease in freshman-to-sophomore retention at four-year campuses is accented by a precipitous fall in 2008 in the public sector.

Annual Rates of Change

Average Tuition and Fees at AICUO Member Institutions v. U.S. National Health Expenditures (1997 to 2007)

Sources: U.S. Department of Health and Human Services Office of the Actuary, National Health Statistics Group; AICUO Annual Tuition and Fees Survey

Broad-scale misunderstanding about higher education costs is one of the key problems colleges and universities face. In a Public Agenda/National Center on Public Policy on Higher Education survey, almost half of those polled thought that college prices were going up as fast as health care costs - a perception that is simply wrong.

The outcome of the just-signed American Recovery and Reinvestment Act of 2009 - the "stimulus bill" - was most beneficial to students with financial need, as the maximum Pell grant will leap even higher than last week's chart (below) anticipated.

The federal commitment to needy students - finally unstuck after years of underfunding - may become even more substantial, depending on the progress of the economic stimulus bill that is headed to a House-Senate conference.

In the last two years, the enrollment growth the state needs to meet the governor's strategic higher education goals has been concentrated, by policy and by the numbers, in the state's public campuses.

Ohio has made considerable progress in access to college for traditional-age students, as the percentage of nonth-graders enrolling in college a year after finishing high school has nearly doubled over the last two decades.

The supply for traditional-age college students will dry up even faster in Ohio than for the region as a whole (see Midwest regional chart by scrolling down at http://www.aicuo.edu/GraphArchives.html). By 2012, there will be one-ninth fewer graduates from the state's high schools than there are this year.

When measured by results - associate, bachelor's, and graduate degrees - the state's higher education dollars go much further at independent colleges.

Enrollment last fall at the public University System of Ohio campuses increased by about 11,000 students — not even half of the growth required to reach the governor’s goal of 230,000 more students by 2016.

New projections continue to show that high school graduations in the midwestern states will fall precipitously after this year's class.

New data from the National Center for Education Statistics continues to show how Ohio's independent colleges have assumed a large share of the state's enrollment growth over the last two decades - and all of the growth in the four-year sector.

Final figures for fall show the 21st consecutive year of enrollment growth among Ohio's independent colleges. This fall's preliminary figures will be available in the middle of October - with final data next spring.

Ohio's independent colleges educate more than their share of one of the state's targeted groups: undergraduates age 30 and over.

Ohio's independent colleges have a large and increasing share of providing financial aid grants to their students - totaling nearly 3/4 of a billion dollars in the 2006-07 academic year.

The total dollars awarded in institutional financial aid grants by AICUO members jumped by 136 percent in a decade, far outstripping the 10-year increase in tuition and fees of 61%.

Independent College Share of Ohio Undergrads and Alumni

More than two thirds of the undergraduates at Ohio's independent colleges come from the Buckeye State - and more than two thirds of the graduates are still here three years after graduation.

Source: AICUO Annual Report Survey

Projections of Change in Public High School Grads

Ohio colleges and universities face substantial demographic challenges in the coming years, as the number of high school graduates available to continue to higher education will start to fall off precipitously.

Student Choice Grant Levels

Although the current state budget cut the Student Choice Grant for Ohio students at the state’s independent colleges by almost a third, the grant still removes more than $2,500 from a student’s loan debt after four years of study.

Enrollment Comparison: Public vs. Independent Institutions

A Major Share Of Ohio's Enrollment Growth.
Since the late 1980s, Ohio's independent colleges have contributed 1/3 of the state's increase in higher education enrollments, even though they enroll only 1/5 of the total students.

Source: Ohio Board of Regents Student Inventory Data, National Center for Education Statistics

Population Projection for 18- to 24-Year-Olds

It's not just the baby boom that's making Ohio Older.
As fewer Ohioans in the future will be of "traditional" college age, colleges and universities will need to add a new focus on adult learners.

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

Public High School Graduates in Ohio- Actual and Projected to 2016

#degreesbyrace

By 2010, the number of new high school graduations in Ohio will begin a precipitous decline. Where will the new college students come from?

Source: National Center for Education Statistics